Swine Flu

[BobHegwood]

Bob, Selden,

after an extendend (international) discussion on vaccine safety, the Swine flu vaccine has only been admitted officially in the US for mass application a short time ago.

I agree that the main vaccinations will take place in the US and in Europe during the months October and November. It is advised strongly to take a shot against the seasonal flu first in September and leave 3-4 weeks before the Swine flu vaccination.

It is still debated whether 1 shot might be enough, but originally 2 shots with a month intervall was supposed to be the "canonical" procedure.

Fridger

Thanks a lot for the information Good Doctor.
Your proposed solution is exactly what I have done and am doing.
You can't be too careful when you're an old, diabetic, RA-afflicted geezer. Hee, hee...

Thanks again, Brain-Dead

[t00fri]

Yes, Bob,

given my informations and your predisposition, you are acting exactly right...

Incidentally, my wife and I also got a shot today against the seasonal flu.

Since the summer, I have attended a number of international conferences with plenty of participants from all over the world and high density of people notably at lunch or banquet time So it's wise to be a little careful in such an environment. The next conference starts beginning of the coming week at my laboratory...

It's certainly quite different from living in a remote village...

Fridger

[BobHegwood]

Incidentally, my wife and I also got a shot today against the seasonal flu.

Since the summer, I have attended a number of international conferences with plenty of participants from all over the world and high density of people notably at lunch or banquet time So it's wise to be a little careful in such an environment. The next conference starts beginning of the coming week at my laboratory...

It's certainly quite different from living in a remote village...

Fridger

Well, I *do* live in a remote? village, so I'm happy where I'm at.
The nearest city is Dayton, OH and it's about 10 miles away from me.
Don't really think that we are "remote," but I'm at least somewhat sheltered from
the world here.

Thanks very much for all of the advice.
Is much appreciated by the Brain-Dead.

[Reiko]

I not take the vaccine now. Why trust them?

[Chuft-Captain]

I don't blame you for not trusting them, as clearly your vaccination against Cyanosis did NOT work.

[Reiko]

I don't blame you for not trusting them, as clearly your vaccination against Cyanosis did NOT work.

Don't make fun of my andorianess.

[t00fri]

I don't blame you for not trusting them, as clearly your vaccination against Cyanosis did NOT work.

Don't make fun of my andorianess.

Yes, that's bad... But one interesting scientific question one may ask is whether Andorians are more or less susceptive than humans as to catching the Swine flu? Unfortunately, there don't seem to be enough Andorians on Earth for making a nice respective plot.

Fridger

[t00fri]

Incidentally, my wife and I also got a shot today against the seasonal flu.

Since the summer, I have attended a number of international conferences with plenty of participants from all over the world and high density of people notably at lunch or banquet time So it's wise to be a little careful in such an environment. The next conference starts beginning of the coming week at my laboratory...

It's certainly quite different from living in a remote village...

Fridger

Well, I *do* live in a remote? village, so I'm happy where I'm at.
The nearest city is Dayton, OH and it's about 10 miles away from me.
Don't really think that we are "remote," but I'm at least somewhat sheltered from
the world here.

Thanks very much for all of the advice.
Is much appreciated by the Brain-Dead.

Hey hey, Bob,

I always thought you live in this "metropolitan city" named Germantown. As the name says, it's a town at least and you guys seem to like Germans

Fridger

[Reiko]

I don't blame you for not trusting them, as clearly your vaccination against Cyanosis did NOT work.

Don't make fun of my andorianess.

Yes, that's bad... But one interesting scientific question one may ask is whether Andorians are more or less susceptive than humans as to catching the Swine flu? Unfortunately, there don't seem to be enough Andorians on Earth for making a nice respective plot.

Fridger

Maybe I was the first andorian to contract it.

[BobHegwood]

Hey hey, Bob,

I always thought you live in this "metropolitan city" named Germantown. As the name says, it's a town at least and you guys seem to like Germans

Fridger

Yes, and this is strange in itself...

My 77-year old mother lived through the bombing of London during WWII, and I
was the first product from an American Air Force sergeant and my poor, witless mother.

Now, I end up living in Germantown, and one of my esteemed contacts is the Good Doctor.
Just goes to show that people *can* get along if they want to.

Thanks, Brain-Dead

[t00fri]

Here is an interesting new piece of information: Swine flu infections broken down into age classes!

The horizontal axis displays bins of age, while the height of the corresponding blue bars indicates the frequency of Swine flu infections in percent. So you see, it's good to be old, sometimes . The typical (average) Swine flu patient is ~19 years old (29% of infections).


(Data from Robert Koch Institute/Germany)

Fridger

[Fenerit]

Virus aren't stupid, this age is the age of "kisses" and sexual intercourses, so they infect better.

[BobHegwood]

Virus aren't stupid, this age is the age of "kisses" and sexual intercourses, so they infect better.

What makes you think that 56 year-olds don't have intimate relationships?

[Fenerit]

Virus aren't stupid, this age is the age of "kisses" and sexual intercourses, so they infect better.

What makes you think that 56 year-olds don't have intimate relationships?

Nothing. But also viruses likes young.

[t00fri]

Virus aren't stupid, this age is the age of "kisses" and sexual intercourses, so they infect better.

I don't think Massimo's somewhat simplistic "sexual interaction" theory is the right interpretation. What is unfortunately missing for comparison is the analogous distribution for the familiar seasonal flu. Yet, I know that it looks qualitatively different. There, mainly the small kids and the seniors are getting it, reflecting the fact that their immune system is weakest. Of course, young grown-ups or adolescents are more actively involved in many "busy" aspects of life (eating in cantines or downtown bars, schools, universities, disco life, travelling abroad,...). These two main factors compete and -- also depending on the aggressiveness of the respective flu type -- will affect the age distribution.

Here is the analogous age distribution for US citizens:


(Data from CDC, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/surveillanceqa.htm)

While the remarkable depletion of incidences among old-age people agrees with the data from Germany above, the US data show a much higher incidence for small children (0-4 yrs)!

As to the striking old-age depletion pattern, one (unconfirmed) speculation is a partial immunisation due to some earlier H1N1 pandemic (where the young population was not yet born)...

Note that the age distribution of Swine flu deaths matches qualitatively the pattern of the incidence distribution. That is particularly surprising for the old-age end, since older people are generally weaker in many respects...


(Data from CDC, http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/surveillanceqa.htm)

Again, it's people from a similar young age group who constitute the dominant number of fatalities! This is another evidence against Massimo's "sexual intercourse" speculation...

Another possibility for explaining the old-age depletion was investigated quantitatively in Germany: perhaps the reason is that the virus has not yet been sufficiently introduced in this older-age sub-population (> 60 years). However, there is convincing evidence against this explanation from this plot (Germany, RKI)



When looking at the proportion of affected age groups over weeks, no shift towards the older (>60 years) or younger (<5 years) age groups can be seen (yet). Hence the striking age-dependent pattern rather appears to be related to different levels of immunisation!

Fridger

[Fenerit]

Fridger, my "theory" is semplicistic in ALL. Was just a witty reply, do not think at me as a bigot! Anyhow, whether the final gain are more informations by you, then I will make it more often.

[Reiko]

I no ever want to get this again. The cold baths I take almost made me blue for real.

[t00fri]

I no ever want to get this again. The cold baths I take almost made me blue for real.

Indeed! As I wrote to you, I had Influenza (seasonal flu) twice in my life...and it was so horrible that I am fully saturated for the rest of it. While a cold bath is certainly effective in bringing down the high fever, diving into cold water constitutes an immense shock to the body, notably since the latter is considerably weakened by the high fever. So this recipe is certainly OFF LIMITS for the elderly...

Fridger

PS: With a fever of 40 degrees centigrade, say, your heart beat is around 130/minute, day and night! This is the recommended rate for middle-aged people while jogging for half an hour or so...Hence no surprise that one feels pretty smashed after 5 days with such high fever.

[LordFerret]

I'd heard something the other day about the "college environment" having something to do with the large number of cases in the age ranges you've been noting concentrations in.

And, hello all once again. I'd been away doing various things over the summer. Nice to see you all again.

[t00fri]

It's about time for another update, since clearly the second wave of Swine flu infections has started now. It is expected that during the northern winter season, many more serious cases and fatalities will occur.

Here is an update plot of the weekly number of new Swine flu infections in Germany.
(KW = KalenderWoche <=> calendar week)



along with the new modified trend as function of time


(from Germany's Robert-Koch institute, as of Oct. 29)

One can see clearly that the weekly rate of new infections is now again close to the peak of the first wave in summer, after a minimum in September.

Meanwhile there are 6 Swine flu deaths in Germany! The total number of registered Swine flu infections in Germany is 29907 by Oct 29. Germany is still the country with the lowest number of Swine flu deaths. The 6 fatalities all occured during the last 2 weeks!


Vaccination?

Fridger