Swine Flu

[LordFerret]

How about Swine flu infections among Celestians??

None that I know of personally here on the east coast where I live, but my niece out in California has been very sick with flu-like symptoms for several days now... don't know if it's Swine flu however.

[t00fri]

How about Swine flu infections among Celestians??

None that I know of personally here on the east coast where I live,

Didn't you note that quite a number of longtime Celestians have become VERY quiet recently?

cartrite, Cham, ElChristou, Bob Hegwood, ANDREA, Runar, Don.Edwards, dirkpitt, ...
Ahem

but my niece out in California has been very sick with flu-like symptoms for several days now... don't know if it's Swine flu however.

She better has this checked...On the northern hemisphere, normal flu in June is very rare.
If she has fever, too, it's highly suspicious, I would say.

As I wrote, there is now even a Swine flu case in my immediate (suburbian) neighborhood. It's a 28 year old guy who has returned from a 10 days stay in NewYork recently.

Fridger

[BobHegwood]

Didn't you note that quite a number of longtime Celestians have become VERY quiet recently?

Well, I'm still here...
Swine Flu doesn't bother me though. There are way too many people in the
world, so killing off a few of them would be a good thing.

There you go... That oughtta get me into some trouble. Hee, hee.

Thanks, Brain-Dead

[t00fri]

Didn't you note that quite a number of longtime Celestians have become VERY quiet recently?

Well, I'm still here...
Swine Flu doesn't bother me though.

Hey Bob,

great that you are all fine and presumably biking around a lot ...

There are way too many people in the
world, so killing off a few of them would be a good thing.

Unfortunately, the Swine flu doesn't distinguish between good guys and bad guys and the worst is surely still to come. In particular, it will hit hardest among the poor and among people with other illness.

Fridger

[BobHegwood]

Unfortunately, the Swine flu doesn't distinguish between good guys and bad guys and the worst is surely still to come. In particular, it will hit hardest among the poor and among people with other illness.

Fridger

True enough...
However, *I* am one of those people who will be hit harder.
You know (I think) that I have had diabetes for 35 years, Neuropathy and all of its problems,
and now I'm also having to deal with the joys of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

You think I oughtta get a preventive shot?
No way in Hell. The farther away from doctors I stay, the better off I am.

Of course, it is also true that I am Brain-Dead after all.

[t00fri]

Unfortunately, the Swine flu doesn't distinguish between good guys and bad guys and the worst is surely still to come. In particular, it will hit hardest among the poor and among people with other illness.

Fridger

True enough...
However, *I* am one of those people who will be hit harder.
You know (I think) that I have had diabetes for 35 years, Neuropathy and all of its problems,
and now I'm also having to deal with the joys of Rheumatoid Arthritis.

You think I oughtta get a preventive shot?
No way in Hell. The farther away from doctors I stay, the better off I am.

Of course, it is also true that I am Brain-Dead after all.

Unfortunately, a vaccine will only be ready for application by fall/winter.

Indeed, your medical history speaks very much for a preventive shot! I am actually certain that you would have high priority getting one early. I caught the seasonal influenza twice in my life. It was just HORRIBLE, and still weeks after formally recovering, I felt as if I had aged significantly. Since years I am taking a shot against the seasonal flu (i.e. the usual influenza). So does my wife and my daughter. It takes about 2 minutes and there are no after-effects whatsoever. My employer pays for the vaccination...

According to the available data and under the plausible assumption that this exponential growth law continues until fall, the number of Swine flu infections will double every 2 weeks (see my diagrams above). Hence in 2 months we have a factor of 16, in 4 months, i.e. by middle of October, we envisage a factor of 16 * 16 = 256.

Right now, there are 21500 recorded infections in the US (with a huge dark figure!). Middle of October, there will be at least 21500 * 256 = 5.5 million infections in the US (with a much larger dark figure of people with weak symptoms that are contageous, however)!!

Then the chances of catching the virus will be getting really significant...and that worldwide.

Fridger

[LordFerret]

I know there's got to be quite a few cases in New York City, I've heard something on the news about that. There's a few here in New Jersey also.

Bob, my advice to you would be to just stay away from people if at all possible. I know that can be hard to do, can't just lock yourself up at home (have to go shop, etc), but with the young and old being most at risk..........

[t00fri]

I know there's got to be quite a few cases in New York City, I've heard something on the news about that. There's a few here in New Jersey also.

Bob, my advice to you would be to just stay away from people if at all possible. I know that can be hard to do, can't just lock yourself up at home (have to go shop, etc), but with the young and old being most at risk..........

Somewhat surprisingly up until now the Swine flu virus hits mostly in the younger age window, i.e. kids until people around 50. Similarly, most people who have died from it so far are in this age window (and have had other medical problems as well!). It was the same pattern during the "killer flu" of 1918, when 50 - 100 million people died worldwide!

The only speculative explanation that exists is that people above 50 must have encountered a relatively similar virus decades ago, thereby becoming sufficiently immune.

Fridger

[BobHegwood]

You guys are simply wonderful resources concerning our little world.
Just amazing what one can learn here on the Celestia Forum.

Thanks, Brain-Dead

[t00fri]

After 6 days, its about time for an update of my usual h1n1 plots. Here are the latest ones, as of today, June 24 2009. The exponential growth law continues perfectly and we have exceeded now 55000 registered infections. Since the Swine flu can also occur with rather mild symptoms (no fever, ...) it is assumed that there is a dark figure much above another 100000 infections (that are contagious, however!)...








There are some not so nice news as well:

It seems the virus has mutated already, since in the southern hemisphere (winter!) it has largely replaced the seasonal flu. Apparently, the Swine flu virus has meanwhile managed to reach humans much better than the seasonal one! The real fear is a mutation towards more agressiveness via cross-infections with both kinds of virus.

Moreover, the effectiveness of Tamiflu is increasingly doubted.

Lastly, if the virus mutates further, the vaccine that is currently being developed will not help once it is ready in fall.

Fridger

[Reiko]

The seasonal flu has killed around 13,000+ since January and the swine flu has killed around 230 so far. Even though the number of cases are way up at least it hasn't shown a high number of deaths.

By the way I have a cold. If it gets worse I'll go see my doctor to find out if I'm swine.

[Kermit]

Hi folks,
...long time lurker, first time poster.

I'd just like to say that personally I'm a big fan of swine -- in fact my girlfriend's a pig.

Here's a selection of my favorite commentaries on swine flu: http://thechive.com/2009/05/the-swine-f ... 20-photos/
Here's a taste (pun intended):

[t00fri]

The seasonal flu has killed around 13,000+ since January and the swine flu has killed around 230 so far. Even though the number of cases are way up at least it hasn't shown a high number of deaths.

By the way I have a cold. If it gets worse I'll go see my doctor to find out if I'm swine.

Reiko,

never mind, Andorians don't get Swine flu . In half a year from now the swine flu will have killed AT LEAST 28300 people, if the present trend continues.

If you get high fever within a short period of time, you should undergo a check despite being an Andorian...

Fridger

[t00fri]

Isn't it funny, how fast one can become an "expert" via the internet!

After entertaining a reasonably serious thread about the Swine flu at shatters.net since about 6 weeks, I got today a personal invitation to attend the upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dear Colleague,

Please find enclosed information on our upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC on August 19-21, 2009.

Delegates are coming from US, Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific.

In addition to insightful presentations and dynamic panel discussions, you can also choose from over 30 concurrent breakout sessions that

includes:

Breakout 1. Mass Fatality Management Planning
Breakout 2. Business Continuity Planning
Breakout 3. Continuity of Operations (COOP) and Continuity of Government Planning
Breakout 4. Emergency Management Services
Breakout 5. Law Enforcement Agencies
Breakout 6. First Responders: Fire Department
Breakout 7. First Responders: Public Works
Breakout 8. 911 Call Center Services
Breakout 9. Hospital and Emergency Medical Services
Breakout 10. Workplace Planning
Breakout 11. School/University Pandemic Planning
Breakout 12. Airlines, Travel, Airport, Quarantine and Border Health Services
Breakout 13. Infectious Medical Waste
Breakout 14. Swine Flu: Agriculture Perspective & Interventions and many more

If you have any queries do not hesitate to contact me at 202-536-5000 or email me at awells@swineflulab.net

To register for this event simply fill in the attached registration form and fax it back to me at 202-280-1239.

For more information on the event, please visit http://new-fields.com/ISFC

Regards,
Ashley Wells
Swine Flu Task Force
New-Fields Exhibitions, Inc.
1101 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 6th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
T: (202) 536-5000 F: (202) 280-1239

awells@swineflulab.net
www.New-Fields.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One amusing detail in Breakout 8. 911 Call Center Services is that the organizers fail to think really internationally, assuming that emergency calls are globally 911 . America, America...

This whole event sounds of course pretty shaky. I assume someone wants to make money through registration fees or similar...

Fridger

[BobHegwood]

Isn't it funny, how fast one can become an "expert" via the internet!

After entertaining a reasonably serious thread about the Swine flu at shatters.net since about 6 weeks, I got today a personal invitation to attend the upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC

Well, as soon as I start having symptoms, I'm hopping on a plane for Hamburg so I can locate
my good friend (and expert).

Thanks, Brain-Dead

[t00fri]

Isn't it funny, how fast one can become an "expert" via the internet!

After entertaining a reasonably serious thread about the Swine flu at shatters.net since about 6 weeks, I got today a personal invitation to attend the upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC

Well, as soon as I start having symptoms, I'm hopping on a plane for Hamburg so I can locate
my good friend (and expert).

Thanks, Brain-Dead

Hey Bob,

while you would be very welcome over here, they won't let you go abord with any kind of Swine flu symptoms! Due to the closed air condition system, planes represent a most effective environment for spreading the virus among several hundred passengers...

Fridger

[ajtribick]

Isn't it funny, how fast one can become an "expert" via the internet!

After entertaining a reasonably serious thread about the Swine flu at shatters.net since about 6 weeks, I got today a personal invitation to attend the upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC

Haha that's brilliant.

[t00fri]

Isn't it funny, how fast one can become an "expert" via the internet!

After entertaining a reasonably serious thread about the Swine flu at shatters.net since about 6 weeks, I got today a personal invitation to attend the upcoming International Swine Flu Conference in Washington, DC

Haha that's brilliant.

OK, here I am, the internationally renowned expert about the Swine flu...



Fridger

[bdm]

Swine flu is attracting some attention in Australia at the moment. It has a foothold here as one of the seasonal flu varieties. It's making this winter's usual colds a bit more interesting than usual.

The H1N1 strain (Swine flu) has claimed the lives of about five people in Australia so far, all in the last ten days or so. All the victims had underlying medical conditions. It seems that this is just another strain of flu.

"When pigs fly" they say. Well the swine flu...

[Reiko]

I haven't turned into a pile of bacon so I'm in the clear.