unstable HD 102272 ?

[Cham]

Yesterday, Grant updated the exoplanets database. I'm wondering about the new HD 102272 system. There's a very high risk of planetary collision, as seen in Celestia. See this URL :

cel://Follow/HIP 57428:c/2024-02-19T20:03:17.78562?x=wNdQKluk1NvOos+7/////w&y=QCzdmZYGb0bqYigO&z=ADzZckJUBFJJn3H1/////w&ow=0.993700&ox=0.076959&oy=0.076007&oz=0.029345&select=HIP 57428:c&fov=38.300716&ts=10000.000000&ltd=0&p=1&rf=644519&lm=14470&ver=2

This system appears to be highly unstable. What do you think ?

[ajtribick]

Best to go to the paper in question here.

It appears that the parameters given are the best Keplerian solution to the data, without stability considerations. This is marked as a crossed circle on Figure 3, which also displays positions of more stable solutions. It is somewhat unfortunate that the best stable Newtonian solution was not published, but the sin(i) degeneracy is always a factor in this kind of thing.

[Cham]

Hmmm, uncertainties are pretty large, in this paper.

In the case of this system, it could be extremelly interesting to have a way to display the uncertainties in Celestia.