granthutchison wrote:But is it an oversimplification? I dunno.
No, actually, I do know. It makes no sense. I can't believe he includes
Atmosphere, Weather and Climate in his reference list, since that's a pretty good source for information that immediately undermines the equation.
1) Greenhouse gases at very low concentrations produce a linear radiative forcing effect; at higher concentrations the radiative forcing varies with the log of the concentration - in Earth's atmosphere, water vapour and CO2 are in the log zone; methane, nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide are in the linear zone. So it makes no sense to mix their effects together without knowing their relative abundances.
2) Molecule-for-molecule, the radiative forcing effect varies considerably, even among the biogenic molecules he lists - methane is 21 times more effective as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and the nitrogen oxides and ammonia are 200 times as effective. So adding partial pressures of these gases without weighting their contributions is also unrealistic.
So it's pretty clear, after a bit of reflection and some data-hunting, that this formula falls into the '
...constructed just to make "decent" results as I see it' category mentioned in the introduction to this website.
But gad, don't you just want to smack people who can't be bothered to give references on the page or clearly mark contrived formulae like that one?
Grant